With second-quarter GDP data due out Thursday, the question of whether the economy is in recession will be on everyone’s mind.
The economy stands at least a fair a chance of hitting the rule-of-thumb recession definition of two consecutive quarters with negative GDP readings.
The last two recessions were in 2020 and 2008-2009, as annotated in the chart above.
Should inflation stay at high levels, that then will trigger the biggest recession catalyst of all, namely Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said “we just don’t have” conditions consistent with a recession.
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Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
To get a better picture of whether we are entering a recession, it helps to look at other economic indicators like income and spending.